Radical Socialist Surges in Michigan — Even Democrats Are Terrified

Liberty Check

• Progressive DSA-backed Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary and now threatens to flip Michigan’s Senate seat even further left
• Mainstream Democrats are concerned El-Sayed’s extreme positions could alienate Reagan Democrats, Jewish voters, and Black voters
• Despite Republican Mike Rogers holding a narrow lead, Democratic enthusiasm and turnout energy pose a serious threat to conservative control

Michigan is about to become ground zero in the battle for America’s future. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed, backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, has clinched the Democratic Senate nomination after a bruising primary — and now faces Republican Mike Rogers in what could be one of the most consequential Senate races this fall.

According to a new Fox News poll of Michigan registered voters, Rogers holds a razor-thin 51% to 47% edge over El-Sayed. But that lead falls within the margin of error, and the real story is what’s happening beneath the surface.

Rogers enjoys near-total party unity. A staggering 96% of Republicans back him, including 99% of MAGA Republicans and 89% of non-MAGA Republicans. Meanwhile, El-Sayed has the overwhelming support of DSA members (98%), but only 69% of non-DSA Democrats and independents are on board — a warning sign for the socialist candidate just one week after his primary victory.

El-Sayed’s coalition is exactly what you’d expect: liberal voters, urban residents, Black voters, and college-educated women. Rogers draws his strength from conservatives, White evangelical Christians, rural voters, and working-class White men.

Men favor Rogers by 11 points while women are essentially split. President Donald Trump won Michigan twice — in 2016 and 2024 — each time by less than 2 points, proving the Wolverine State remains fiercely competitive.

Here’s where it gets concerning for conservatives: El-Sayed is running behind where Kamala Harris performed in 2024 among Black voters, women, and suburban voters. Rogers is also underperforming Trump’s 2024 numbers among voters under 30 and independents. Both candidates have work to do to consolidate their bases.

About three-quarters of each candidate’s supporters say they’re certain they’ll stick with their choice this fall. Roughly two-thirds say their support is for their candidate rather than against his opponent. In other words, both sides are locked in.

But the energy advantage belongs to the left. El-Sayed leads by 11 points among voters who are extremely interested in the election, by 7 points among those extremely motivated, and by 4 points among definite voters. Democrats are 15 points more likely than Republicans to say they’re extremely interested, 11 points more motivated, and 7 points more certain they’ll vote.

“The energy is on the left in Michigan, as it is throughout the country, and that should help with turnout,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct Fox News polls.

“But El-Sayed’s nomination path highlighted party rifts. He needs to reassure a wide range of Michigan Democrats — including Reagan Democrats, Jewish voters, and Black voters — that he will serve their interests rather than pursue an extremist agenda.”

More than half of Michigan voters are concerned El-Sayed’s positions are too extreme (54%), and 51% worry Rogers is too close to Trump. Twice as many Democrats are concerned about El-Sayed’s extremism (30%) as Republicans are about Rogers’ Trump ties (14%). Independents are 10 points more concerned about Rogers’ association with Trump than El-Sayed’s radical positions.

Trump’s favorable rating in Michigan is underwater by 19 points (40% favorable, 59% unfavorable). Both Senate candidates also have negative ratings, with El-Sayed at -13 and Rogers at -6. The Republican Party sits at -12 net favorability while the Democratic Party is at -13.

The MAGA movement is viewed more favorably than the DSA by 10 points (40% vs. 30%), but more voters have strongly unfavorable views of MAGA than DSA (45% vs. 37%).

Inflation is the top issue in the Michigan Senate race at 38%. Four in 10 voters say they are falling behind financially. Other priorities include immigration and border security (14%), healthcare (14%), and political divisions (11%).

El-Sayed stays competitive thanks to voters who prioritize inflation (+10 points), healthcare (+47), and political divisions (+5). Rogers dominates among those who care about immigration (+82).

Those who say they’re falling behind financially back El-Sayed by 24 points — a stunning rebuke of the current economy.

By an 11-point margin, Michigan voters oppose the U.S. continuing to provide military aid to the Israeli government (44% favor vs. 55% oppose). Those favoring aid back Rogers by 45 points while those opposed prefer El-Sayed by 29 points.

In the governor’s race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson holds a 5-point advantage over Republican John James (52% vs. 47%), also within the margin of error. Benson draws greater support among non-DSA Democrats and independents than El-Sayed does in the Senate race (81% vs. 69%).

There is some ticket-splitting. Rogers’ backers are nearly three times as likely to cross over for Benson as El-Sayed supporters are to back James (14% vs. 5%).

About 1 in 5 Benson supporters and 1 in 4 James supporters say they may still change their minds. Benson’s net favorability is +7 (49% favorable, 42% unfavorable), while James sits at -3 (41% favorable, 44% unfavorable).

Our freedoms depend on staying vigilant.