Is a US Recession Unlikely in the Next Year?
Here’s the Scoop
In a striking turn from earlier forecasts, a recent survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) brings a glimmer of hope to the American economic landscape.
The survey, involving over three dozen leading business economists, suggests that the likelihood of the U.S. entering a recession in the next year is diminishing, with 76% of respondents rating the odds at less than 50%. This marks a significant shift from the February survey, where 58% predicted an imminent recession.
The findings paint a picture of an economy displaying surprising resilience, despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at cooling inflation. Inflation itself shows signs of slowing, with core inflation expected to decelerate, albeit not to the Fed’s target rate just yet. The unemployment rate, while projected to increase slightly, is not anticipated to spike dramatically.
These projections come on the heels of the third-quarter GDP report, revealing robust economic growth at a 5.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate, the strongest since the pandemic rebound. With the Fed’s next meeting looming, and most watchers expecting a hold on the current interest rate, the economic outlook appears cautiously optimistic.
This positive economic forecast, however, is not without its caveats. As interest rates remain high and economic growth is expected to slow down, the path ahead is uncertain.
We ask you, our readers: Do you believe that a U.S. recession is unlikely in the next year, as suggested by these latest findings? Your opinion is crucial in understanding public sentiment on the nation’s economic future. Cast your vote and share your views on the trajectory of the U.S. economy amidst these changing economic predictions.
What do you think? Let us know by participating in our poll, or join the discussion in the comment section below!